For the dry bulk market, 2012 was one for the record books -- but not for positive reasons. Dry bulk spot chartering rates reached lows not seen in over a decade. Daily capesize chartering rates, for example, averaged $7,680/day in 2012. This was well below the $15,639/day average witnessed in 2011. Daily panamax chartering rates averaged $7,681/day in 2012, which was well below the $14,000/day average witnessed in 2011. Supramax chartering rates averaged $9,452/day in 2012, which was moderately below the $14,400/day average witnessed in 2011. Handysize rates averaged $7,626 /day in 2012, which was moderately below the $10,552/day average witnessed in 2011

Not surprisingly, dry bulk chartering rates came under tremendous pressure last year due to the steady delivery of new vessels. Orders for many of these vessels were placed in 2010, when conditions were better in the dry bulk market. Oversupply reared its ugly head in each of the four dry bulk vessel classes last year, and amazingly capesize rates averaged basically the same as panamax rates (amazing because capesize vessels, on average, are able to carry double the amount of cargo as panamax vessels). The significant market imbalance seen in 2012 is classic sign of vessel supply. The capesize market suffered the worst in 2012. This year, however, the panamax market is likely to be the biggest loser

For 2013, the orderbook for panamax vessels stands at approximately 260 vessels, while the orderbook for capesize vessels stands at approximately 90 vessels. The orderbook for handymax vessels stands at approximately 155 vessels, while the orderbook for handysize vessels stands at approximately 145 vessels. With almost three times as many panamax vessels expected to be delivered this year compared with capesize vessels, the panamax market is poised to stay under pressure and panamax rates are likely to remain very low. Capesize rates, however, are poised to rebound moderately and are likely to fluctuate throughout this year when there are short-term changes in cargo demand.

Overall, capesize rates are likely to reclaim their rightfully place above panamax rates. Panamax rates are likely to remain under supramax and handysize rates, however, and the overall dry bulk market is likely to stay partially out of balance. That is good news for capesize owners, adequate news for supramax and handysize owners, but bad news for panamax owners. Many of the ghosts of 2012 will be to rest in the dry bulk market this year, but in the panamax market the ghosts are set to remain.